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Friday, 3 April 2015

An Alternate History Scenario for Every Country (Part 6)

Welcome to part six of An Alternate History Scenario for Every Country, (Part 1: and the last part:, a fortnightly series where each country gets an alternate history scenario. It doesn't have to be realistic, just interesting so let's start!

Cyprus- The 1974 Cypriot coup fails
In 1974 sponsored by the Greek military junta sponsored a coup with the Cypriot National Guard which overthrew incumbent President Makarios III to replace him with Nikos Sampson to was in favor of Enosis, (Cypriot union with Greece), which caused Turkey to invade the island that year. Since then Cyprus has been divided between the Republic of Cyprus in the south and the Turkish Republic of Cyprus in the north, (although the north is only recognized by Turkey). In this scenario the coup fails because Makarios III does not change the constitution. In 1960 he changed the constitution by bringing in thirteen amendments which included changing the organization of the military. The original constitution was written to mediate between the Greek and Turkish Cypriots by having the military being made of 60% Greek and 40% Turkish personnel. Makarios III changed this to be more representative of the population so 82% of army personnel were Greek; including 82% of the Cypriot National Guard after its formation in 1964. In this scenario then Makarios III does not introduce this amendment so in 1974 the Greek majority in the National Guard who wanted Enosis is much lower so the coup fails. With the pro-Enosis Nikos Sampson not put in power the Turkish have no justification to invade and Cyprus is not divided. Following the invasion there was increased Turkish immigration to Cyprus so in this scenario there would be fewer Turkish nationals living in Cyprus. However the inter-communal violence that rocked Cyprus until 1964 would flare up again with Turkish Cypriots fearful that the Greek Cypriots would try for Enosis again while the Greek Cypriots would be fearful that the Turkish Cypriots would try and seize more power for infighting in the Cypriot National Guard. We would then see civil conflict similar to that in Northern Ireland with the IRA or in Israel with the PLO. The Greek ,(reformed), EOKA guerrillas would start terrorist activities against the government and Turkish areas while the Turkish TMT would do the same against Greeks instead. Inevitably Makarios III would be assassinated although both the EOKA and TMT would be willing to assassinate him, EOKA for his refusal to create a union with Greece while the TMT for his pro-Greek views. Throughout the 1970s and 1980s violence would escalate and even go onto the Greek and Turkish mainlands. A UN Taskforce would be sent to try and mediate the violence. However only in the 1990s would a ceasefire and a reformed constitution that would appease both the TMT and EOKA happen under the watch of US President Bill Clinton, (in our timeline he mediated a partially successful ceasefire in Ireland).

Fiji- A revolt deposes Seru Epenisa Cakobau
Seru Epinsa Cakobau was a Vunivalu, (a warlord), who ended up uniting Fiji in 1871 after nineteen years of fighting to unite the islands to form the Fijian Kingdom. In this scenario a revolt in 1854 led by the sacred Fijian chieftain called the Roko Tui Bau leads a revolt among the people against Seru Epenisa Cakobau due to him being Christian whose ideology contrasted much with the culture of his people, (which included him renouncing cannibalism in 1854). Cakobau is overthrown and murdered by the revolutionaries before being replaced by another powerful family member. The missionary who converted Cakobau, James Calvert, would then be captured and executed. Fiji would then remain a collection of different Vunivalu who would fight and war among one another although there would be no specific war of conquest that Cakobau led. It was Cakobau who ceded the islands to Britain so most likely Fiji would not be made a British colony. Other powers such as the USA and France as well as the British would not approach Fiji though because of the Fijian culture allowing cannibalism. With no British colony and no introduction of Indian contract laborers Christianity, Islam and Hinduism would not be brought to Fiji. By the 1890s Fiji would be unable to resit foreign intervention and unwilling to be annexed they would be invaded by the British. However with Fiji being annexed close to forty years after it was in our timeline more of the original culture would remain intact.

Vietnam- The Indochinese Communist Party fails to revive the Viet Minh
In 1941 the Indochinese Communist Party, (ICP), and the future Vietnamese Prime Minister and later President Ho Chi Minh revived the nationalistic independence group the Viet Minh. Although by 1944 Viet Minh membership was at 500,000 in this scenario the anti-communist policies of the French and Japanese severely weakened the ICP by arresting key figures such as Ho Chi Minh so they couldn't reform the Viet Minh. Without a Viet Minh resistance against Japan throughout the war would be less organised if it even exists at all; many Vietnamese saw the Japanese as liberators against European imperialism. As in our timeline Japan would set up a puppet government in Hanoi until the Allies and scattered resistance ousts the Japanese in 1945. With no Viet Minh there is no declaration of independence so the French do not invade to reestablish their authority. The Viet Minh had a communist leadership so the US would be less hostile against any independence movement. Inspired by the Algerian independence movement in the 1960s militancy among the population would start to grow and among the peasantry socialist and communist ideas would come about. In 1963 facing international pressure and violence, including the self-immolation of Buddhist monks inspired by the martyred Thic Quang Duc. As a way to make independence more sustainable the French put pressure on Bao Dai to be the Emperor of an independent Vietnam, something he rejected in 1954, but without the corrupt Ngo Dinh Diem as Prime Minister. Most of the populace would be against Vietnam being a monarchy for Bao Dai's extravagant living and collaboration with the Japanese and the French causing constant widespread dissent for years to come. The US would send financial aid to prop up the anti-communist regime but it would not send military advisers and later full soldiers because with no Viet Minh there would be no Viet Cong. Eventually in the 1970s a coup would depose the monarchy who would flee to nearby Laos and until the 1990s military rule would exist in Vietnam until it holds its first democratic election.

Yemen- Saudi Arabia manages to annex Yemen in the Saudi-Yemeni War
Following the collapse of the Ottoman Empire newly formed nations in the Arabian Peninsular had no clear borders and this caused issues between the newly formed Saudi Arabia and the Mutawakkilite Kingdom of Yemen. After multiple changing borders the two nations went into a quick war in 1934 which asserted where each nation had their boundaries. In this scenario the Saudi forces manages to unexpectedly break the Yemeni forces by using weaponry supplied by the British, who had bad relations with Yemen for their rule over the Aden Protectorate. The Saudi government would secretly execute the captured Yemeni Imam Yahya Muhammad Hamid ed-Din to ensure that the now annexed Yemeni people would not revolt behind their former leader. Quickly Ibn Saud, (the Saudi King), would begin a process of converting the people into Wahhabism although this would be a slow process. Where the Mutawakkilite Kingdom was the population was largely Shiite, (in the Aden Protectorate the population was primarily Sunni), whereas the rest of Saudi Arabia is Sunni. To avoid a revolt Ibn Saud would either start the conversion slowly or not at all, today in Saudi Arabia there are multiple small pockets of non-Wahhabi Muslims. However soon a revolution would happen. Yemeni Imams in our timeline wanted a free Yemen no matter who ruled the area so nationalism and religion would influence a revolution. The more organised Saudi military and British forces who would be opposed to an independent Yemen in case they influenced a revolution in Aden would crush most of the revolution. North Yemen's geography of mountains and hills would allow many revolutionaries to avoid detection from the British and Saudi until the outbreak of World War Two where the British would withdraw. Following Ibn Saud's death in 1953 the Saudi government would be less willing to fight the Yemeni revolters and would give Yemen its independence again. Throughout this period nationalists in Aden would also start revolting against British rule and following an independent Yemen being formed the nationalists would start violently opposing British rule. Quickly the British would pull out granting Yemen control of Aden.

Tanzania- A slave uprising creates a Zanzibar sultanate
In 1840 the Omani Sultan Seyyid Said moved his capital to Zanzibar City which soon became the center of the Arab slave trade and between 65-90% Arab-Swahili on Zanzibar were enslaved. In this scenario when the slavers start arriving and enslaving the population the Swahili on Zanzibar an uprising takes place. Inspired by the islanders the people on the coast quickly declare their allegiance to the Zanazibar rebels and they too start ousting the Omani from their land. Facing an entire population against them and the growing influence of Europeans in the Indian Ocean Oman abandons their empire in modern day Tanzania. A Zanzibar Sultanate is declared consisting of the islands that encompass Zanzibar as well as Omani lands in Tanzania with the capital being Zanzibar City. With its strategic place the Zanzibar Sultanate becomes a dominant regional power through trade with ivory from Africa, gold coming from South Africa and tea, silk and silver coming from Asia passing through the ports. Quickly Zanzibar integrates a variety a cultures thanks to an increase of Ottoman, Indian and European traders constantly trading along side the dominant Swahili culture. However discontent grows between the urbanized cities profiting from trade on Zanzibar and the primarily agriculturalists on the mainland who do not benefit from the increase in trade. When Europeans start exercising increased power in the 1860s the mainlanders revolt and become puppets of Portugal. Eventually the Zanzibar Sultanate cannot last against European imperialism and is too made a colony.

Morocco- The Reconquista spreads to Morocco
In 1492 the united forces of Castille and Aragon conquered the last Muslim kingdom in the Iberian Peninsular, (Grenada), and fearing religious persecution causing thousands of Jews and Muslims to flee to Morocco. In this scenario the newly unified Spain in order to safeguard Atlantic trade against Portugal, safeguard trade to the Mediterranean and to destroy a possible enemy Spain invades Morocco. The unified forces of Spain spurred on by religious zealousness invades Tangier and caught off guard the city soon falls. The regional power of Morocco had started to fade by the time the Reconquista took place, even under the rule of the new Wattasid Dynasty, so Moroccan resistance soon falters. Spain soon conquers the north of the weakened Morocco but religious zeal and nationalism causes the regional lords to rally behind the Wattasids and resist Spanish rule. By 1505 a ceasefire is declared with Spain dominating Morocco from Tangier to Casablanca, (although this was made easier thanks to heavy European influence in those areas already). In the Spanish controlled areas of Morocco the Spanish Inquisition starts to exercise massive amounts of authority causing the mass deportation of Muslims and Jews in occupied areas. Like what happened with the Alhambra mosques would start to be converted into churches. In southern Morocco the Wattasids are overthrown by the Saadi family who were the most powerful family in southern Morocco in our timeline. The devastating famine which according to historian Elizabeth Allo Isichei killed around 2 million people in 1520 would serve as a turning point. Moroccans in Spanish owned areas would turn against the Spanish occupiers who would have monopoly over the scarce resources. The Saadi family would begin a policy of reverse Reconquista where they would exploit the weakened Spanish position in North Africa to reclaim their land. The reverse Reconquista would last for many years thanks to the growing strength of Spain through the new resources opened by Atlantic trade but Portugal would eventually intervene on the side of Morocco to enable themselves to try and break Spain's power in the Americas. Eventually by 1560 the last Spanish city in Africa, most likely Cueta, would fall.

Angola- The MPLA manages to destroy UNITA and FNLA in 1974
 The People's Movement for the Liberation of Angola, (MPLA), was a guerrilla group which fought for Angolan independence from Portugal and later against the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA) and the National Liberation Front of Angola (FNLA) in the Angolan Civil War. In short these three groups devastated Angola in continuous warfare from 1961 to 2002 where each side committed serious human rights abuse, killed thousands and caused Angola to be a Cold War battlefield, (the MPLA was Marxist-Leninist), and many countries including South Africa, Cuba and Zaire, (modern day Democratic Republic of the Congo), intervened in the war. In this scenario the MPLA manages to infiltrate UNITA and the FNLA before the Civil War starts. The leaders are executed so for the next few years there is relative peace. That is until the MPLA starts to nationalize Angola's industries including petroleum, bananas, coffee and oil which attracts the attention of Cuba and the USSR who sends advisers to help build infrastructure and bring MPLA dominated Angola to the Soviet block instead of China. However fighting soon breakout after ethnic divisions break after the MPLA tries to install communist ideas over the different ethnic groups instead of solving the problems first. Soon civil war breaks out as the MPLA tries to forcibly put down the irate groups although the fighting ends quickly due to the lack of organization from groups like UNITA. They do not however gain full control over the Cabinda province separated by the border with Zaire and the economy drops there. Sporadic fighting continues to drain Angola's resources and the economy drops as in our timeline. However it would be less reliant on the other communist powers as the fighting would not be continuous and they would still hold elections. Although the one party system created as a by-product of the purge of UNITA and the FNLA. Slowly Angola would democratize following the end of the Cold War but it would be an arduous process like in our timeline.

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